The Burmese Dilemma

Advice by neighbours, pain of continuous economic sanctions and protests by world citizens demanding the release of Aung San Suu Kyi have all fallen to deaf ears. Indeed, the Burmese military junta are more intransigent and recalcitrant than anyone can imagine.

Proponents of sanctions against the Burmese military junta are full of hypocrisy. It has long been proven that sanctions are ineffective. We've seen the futility when applied to Iran, South Africa and Iraq under Saddam. Despite official sanctions, many private businessmen including western middlemen and oil congolomerates have bypassed legal channels to carry on trade and investments in a supposedly isolated country. Sanctions would hit innocent Burmese people harder than the regime as the leaders could find alternative sources of income and financial services. It is impossible to cut off all ties with Burma nor is it advisable to do so. Australia which is a strong critic of the junta has trained Burmese police officers and hosts Burmese students who are children of the military leaders.

Engagement would have to continue no matter how loathsome it might be. Surely, we're not thinking of Bush's infamous : you're either with us or against us; or are some idealists tinkering with ideas of invading Burma to overthrow the junta?

Asian neighbours who know the Burmese culture well are aware they are a people with great pride regardless of their rank or social status. They would not bow down to pressure or public embarrassment. However, the patience of Burma's ASEAN members is wearing thin as the efficacy of engagement is proving impotent.

There are also limitations to how much Asian neighbours could pressure a sovereign country where the military still wields the reigns of power. Pragmatism often overrides humanitarian or moral considerations. What can we expect from some of these governments that aren't exemplary in their treatment of domestic opposition. Not just Asean, but energy hungry China, Japan, South Korea and France too. The impact of sanctions is more psychological.

One thing is certain is that the military junta's grasp of power is not sustainable in time to come. They have long defied the people's will shown in the results of the elections two decades ago. The junta has already lost their legitimacy to govern. Perhaps more sanctions would cause widespread starvation and hardship and turn the whole nation to revolt against the incompetent and corrupt regime.

An internal revolution from top down in Burma may be the most powerful and least disintegrative path to resolving the myriad of problems in Burma. Aung San Suu Kyi's has given new energy to the opposition groups in Burma and galvanise the people. Burma needs a people power revolution involving disgruntled subjects of the military junta to break the stalemate.

One way out of the quagmire would be for the military junta to relinquish economic management to the experts. They could well retire with the millions they have accumulated. A power-sharing agreement with Aung San Suu Kyi would be a face-saving way out for the military junta. At the same time, western governments and the diverse Burmese opposition should realize that a future government which totally excludes SLRC may not be workable and cause a breakdown in administration and lead to chaos. The contending forces should not let the opportunity slip pass. The junta should release Aung San Suu Kyi and help to bring about a national reconciliation government soon instead of bringing about their own downfall and bloodshed.